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Notes from 45th International STC Conference
Anaheim, California, May 17-20, 1998
Keynote Address
Joel A. Barker
Barker is an internationally
acclaimed futurist and inventor of the "Paradigm Shift".
- Three keys to the future are Imagination, Innovation, and Communication.
- Web site addresses:
- Principle #1: The
biggest breakthroughs in a field occur long before their need is perceived.
- Internet: When DarpaNet started, nobody realized where it would lead
- Cure for ulcers: Discovery
of the causative agent, a bacterium, was actually made back in 1984
in Australia... it took a long time to take hold; there was much
profit to be had in treating the symptoms.
- Xerography: IBM was
approached by Xerox and said, "Don't you understand we have carbon paper?"
- Principle #2: The inventor of great breakthroughs rarely understands
the significance at the time of the discovery.
- Tennis racquet
- Ulcer cure: The researcher
who discovered the bacterium that causes ulcers and developed the
cure (bismuth and cyclosporin) was not even a doctor, just an intern.
And his first test was on himself.
- Principle #3: The first problems solved with the new discoveries will
be the problems that were "impossible" under the old technology.
- Transistors
- Federal Express
- Hypersonic sound
- It's very important to break boundaries, establish new paradigms.
- HMOs
- Accountants managing lawyers (and holding them to a budget!)
- Both groups and individuals
seek balance in their lives...they don't want to "rock the boat."
Innovation threatens that, which means that those who break boundaries
will be criticized, even attacked. The degree of resistance will depend
on the PERCEIVED level of change rather than the ACTUAL level of change.
- In times of crisis, people
will seek innovation, rather than resist it. (In essence, the
boat is already rocking, so people are willing to take risk in order to restabilize it.)
- The only point of view that counts on an innovation is the user's point of
view, not the innovator's point of view.
- Ten parameters governing whether a new idea will be accepted
- #1. Upside, yes.
Does the new idea have advantages over what the users are doing
presently? Why should they make the change if it offers no advantage?
- Edison's electric light... flexibility, precision, easy on eyes (vs gas). Safety
actually wasn't a primary concern; people were already sed to the risk.
- Airbags...will save your life.
- Word processors... obvious usability advantage.
- #2. Downside, no. What is the risk to the user?
- Edison... the light goes out (vs. a gas explosion)... no big downside
- Airbags...they can
kill children... major downside; forced adjustment. The speaker
pointed out that the reason airbags were designed to open so
explosively was that "some ass in Washington" decided
to protect people even if they weren't using their seatbelts.
If airbags were designed, instead, on the assumption that the
only effective use would be with the seatbelts fastened,
then they wouldn't have to open so explosively to save a belted
person's life. In essence, then, we traded the lives of children
for the lives of stupid people who won't buckle their seatbelts.
"And that really pisses me off," Barker said.
- #3. Simplicity. Does it look simple to the user?
(It doesn't have to be simple, just look simple.)
- Edison... simple for user (change bulb, change fuse, wait for power to come back on)
- Salad in a sack... very simple for user, actually fairly complicated in production
- Macintosh computer... simplified
the arcane labyrinth of DOS to accommodate the average user.
- #4. Easy phase-in. Can the change be introduced in small increments?
- Edison... users could
try initially with just one light bulb in their house (risk control!)
- Energy conservation in the home... one step at a time
- Computers in cars... started
with pollution control equipment, went to fuel injection, then
on to the rest of the system (rather than introducing all at
once), including a global positioning system (GPS). Anecdote:
For a woman, the GPS computer voice chides: "You made a
wrong turn." For men, it coos: "Would you like to try another way?"
- #5. Familiar language.
Can you use familiar words to describe the new idea? Avoid inventing
a new vocabulary...jargon creates 2 opportunities for the user to
be wrong (mispronunciation and not knowing the meaning)
- Edison stole every word he could from the gas lexicon and applied it to the electrical
system (gas burner became electric burner, gas socket became
electric socket, gas main became main electrical line)
- Introduction of
the airplane... Billy Mitchell buried the generals in aerodynamic
language; he got court-martialed. Moffett used terms like "very
high altitude observation platform," "flying torpedo
tubes," "flying-deck cruiser"; he was viewed as a genius.
- Computer-ese... it wasn't really necessary
- #6. Credibility.
Does your reputation support your right to introduce this idea? If not, get
somebody who does have the requisite credibility to introduce it.
- IBM and desktops
- Insurance companies providing discounts for airbags
- Edison already had credentials as an inventor.
- #7. Compatible fit.
How well does the solution fit the existing situation?
- Edison used the gas tubes to run the electric wires.
- Electronic voice messaging was compatible with existing technology
- Fax machine was easily imposed upon the existing infrastructure.
- #8. Reliable performance.
Does the product perform dependably? How much down time is there?
What is the tradeoff between the benefit of performance and the
frustration of nonavailability?
- Edison's first light bulbs lasted only 15 to 20 hours, but people still wanted them.
- Timex... "It takes a licking..."
- Federal Express... "When it absolutely, positively..."
- #9. Easy in.
Compared to present costs, what is the cost of instituting the new idea?
- Leasing a car
- Cellular phones... can sign up at a mall, have it delivered the next day
- Learning to use a Macintosh
- #10. Easy out.
Can the user easily get out of the idea after starting to use it?
- Cellular phones
- 30-day money-back guarantee
- Toro lawn mower... sell it to your neighbor
- In summary, parameters
#1 and #2 are mandatory. Get as many of the other 8 as possible. It
only takes one excuse for a potential user to resist the idea.
- Some parting advice for technical communicators:
- It is critical to help people understand the technical aspects of the world.
- This skill is only going to increase in importance.
- Technical communicators must illuminate the options we have as we enter the 21st century;
they must strive not to mislead people, but rather to make sure
they can make decisions through the light of clear communication, not
the fog of confusion.
- Specific tips
- Read outside your field
- Look for anything different, anyone breaking the rules... and then figure out how
it can be applied to solve problems in your area.
- Establish certain areas of stability in your life...button-down shirts, return
to religion, types of recreation. Not everything can be "rocking
and rolling" constantly. Since technology will continue
to rock the boat, it can be very important to stabilize other
areas of our lives, ranging from the simple to the profound.
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